The Sound of Beauty. The slogan for the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest hasn’t so far met with universal acclaim. Some suggest it doesn’t make a lot of sense, but what does it really mean? It will be different to different people, but for me, the sound of beauty is the sound of little rolls of paper being unfurled. It is the sound of the words “Bulgaria will perform on the first half of the first semi final”. It is the sound of a little metallic “ding” as a country appears in a graphic. I love a semi final draw.
I love a semi final draw for three reasons. The first reason is stats, the second reason is stats. And the third reason is stats. I get the chance to fill in my giant semi final allocation spreadsheet and figure out who has benefited the most from the draw. I’ve collated the votes from Eurovisions going back to 2008 and for each year I’ve compared how many points each country received from those voting in this year’s semi 1 with those voting in semi 2. Then for each country I average the differences between the semis and multiply by the expected number of points (i.e. total number of points available in a semi divided by number of countries). This gives me an estimate of how many extra points the draw could be worth to a given country.
My stats will show how much better off a country will be compared to if they were shifted into the other semi. It doesn’t take any account of how historically strong some countries are, or whether The Rasmus have a big fanclub in Armenia. It’s purely who has voted for who in past contests. On with semi1!
Portugal are the surprise winners of the draw for semi final 1, although no one gets a huge advantage. They may not have Spain voting in their semi, but France is possibly a more reliable source of points for them. They also do well with Switzerland and Slovenia, for some reason. They even get second half.
Austria have also done well. They have neighbours Switzerland in there with them and can get decent points from Bulgaria and Netherlands among others.
At the other end Latvia and Lithuania are together at the bottom. They are really missing the UK, Ireland and Poland. Latvia also tend to get points from Georgia. They might need the vegan vote.
Both of the countries where we have the song are in negative territory. If they weren’t already, Bulgaria look doomed.
On to semi 2, and hooray for the luck of the Irish! Emerald eyes were smiling on the little bits of paper, as they get the UK in their semi, along with Australia. They also have a decent record of getting points from the Czech Republic and Sweden, for some reason. They got second half too, so it was a good day. Having heard their songs, they may need all the help they can get.
Finland have also done very well for themselves. The presence of Estonia is always a good sign for them. Unlike Estonia, they don’t mind so much when Latvia and Lithuania are in the other part of the draw. We tend to give Finland a few points too, as do Australia and the Czechs.
North Macedonia have fared the worst in this semi, and the worst overall. While they have Serbia and Montengro, they really miss Albania and Bulgaria.
Georgia are also in a difficult semi. They only really have Azerbaijan as an Eastern European friend. I’m not sure if the draw will effect them that much though. They’ve got Circus Mircus. Batshit crazy is a universal language.
Thank You Europe 